Posted on: January 8, 2009 1:05 am

A Note to Gregg Doyel

Florida will win.


You drastically overestimate Sam Bradford and the rest of the OU offense, especially because they (and their hurry-up) have not scored 60 on an SEC defense. Especially because they are without their leading rusher.

I wrote a much more comprehensive piece, but somehow, I managed to navigate elsewhere over it. (And, thus, I lost it.)

I expect your prediction that Oklahoma will win " big" to turn out much the same as your "lock" that Tebow would win the Heisman.

One other thing -- the reason the Big XII-hurryup worked so well (and by "so well", I mean Texas barely won) in the Fiesta Bowl is because the competitor was OSU. The SEC is not quite on par with the Big Ten. Sorry, Doyel. I think Florida will be ready.

A reiteration: 49-35 Florida.


Category: NCAAF
Posted on: December 9, 2008 5:45 am

Mess with the Bull(___) = (For)get the Horns

Anyone get that title? See, the phrase is "You mess with the bull, you get the horns." Well, the BCS, as it has proven for years, is really just that without the C. (That's what that blank, above, is.) That remains true this year, despite a vast improvement (only one screwed team, with fairly unpersuasive beef [see below]) from years past. Then, the "Horns", obviously, represents Texas. So what it means is when you mess with the BCS, you forget Texas for a spot to play for the National Championship. MAN I'm clever.


What is Texas so pissed about?

I understand they think they got screwed. Whether or not they did is certainly up for (and has been) debate(d) (ad nauseam). But seriously -- what's the big problem here?

They can't be upset about Florida being ahead of them. Luckily, they seem to agree with this -- Mack Brown voted Florida as his #1 in the most recent (and crucial) coaches' poll.

Okay...so they're upset about Oklahoma being ahead of them? There are two possibilities as to why they're upset at Oklahoma: (1) Oklahoma is in the BCS Title ahead of them, or (2) Oklahoma was in the Big 12 Championship ahead of them, leading to  (1).

Option #1 is simply ridiculous -- OU absolutely destroyed my school's football program (no, not just the team) in the Big 12 Championship, at which point OU was already ranked higher than Texas. Before that game, it was painfully obvious that an OU win meant OU would go to the title game. So this option is out the window.

Option #2 -- although a little stale and cumbersome -- is probably what Texas is still grappling with. And as I mentioned in my last blog (albeit, somewhat in jest), it is a very real possibility that Texas did, indeed, get screwed out of a spot in the Big 12 Title game. But closer analysis seems to reveal otheriwse:

Margin of Victory. This is an element in the BCS formulation. Texas' 11 wins have come by an average of 26.4 points. OU's 12 wins have come by an average of 32.75. Advantage Oklahoma.

Results against Common Opponents. This doesn't count explicitly toward the BCS formulation, but it does implicitly. (Just think about it.) The results (not considering venue):

-Mizzou (single tear) - OU +41; TX +25 (OU +16 on Texas)

-OK St. - OU +20; OSU + 4 (OU +32)

-Kansas - OU +14; TX +28 (OU +18)

-Texas Tech - OU +44; TX -6 (OU +68)

-Baylor - OU +32; TX +24 (OU +76)

-TX A&M - OU +36; TX +40 (OU +72 -- boy did A&M suck this year)

Because this analysis skews toward OU for not counting it's one loss, I'll throw that in there also -- so after docking OU 10 (the amount by which it lost to Texas), OU is still ahead of Texas by 62 points. Advantage Oklahoma.

The One Loss. Ready to have your socks blown off? Here you go: Texas' loss was far worse than Oklahoma's. Yes, Texas can argue what everyone immediately does: The head-to-head win over Oklahoma. But unfortunately for Texas, in my mind, that only makes Oklahoma look better. OU's one loss was to the #3 team in the country -- a team that, save for one loss and one close game against a ranked foe (OK St.), has dominated all season. Texas' one loss, on the other hand, was at the hands of a weaker team -- one which OU beat by 44. Texas Tech is currently #7, and is lucky to be there after almost squandering what should have been a gimme-blowout at home against Baylor. (On the subject: The TT-Ole Miss game will be one of the bowl season's best.)

Texas can also argue (although this is a very specific and slight argument) that its loss was less impactful than Oklahoma's because it lost by a slimmer margin, on the last play. That's one I actually agree with (why I mentioned it), but it just doesn't carry a lot of water. Also, a relevant counterargument by Oklahoma would be, again, "we beat that team by forty-four.Advantage Oklahoma.

Personally, I think Texas would make just as good a Big 12 representative as Oklahoma. Has Texas played Mizzou in the Big 12, I think it would have done what it has done all year -- beaten an opponent (in this case, MU) by somewhat less of a margin than OU did. (Think something along the lines of 56-31...just picked numbers out of a hat.) I think either team could beat Florida. I also think either team could be beaten by Florida.

I think the game will be incredible.

What I am CERTAIN of, though, is that either team -- Texas or OU -- could absolutely destroy Ohio State, which, for the second consecutive year, finds itself in a bowl in which it does not belong. (I will have a comprehensive bowl prediction blog in a couple of weeks. OSU's predicted outcome will be considerably anti-OSU.)

And on that note, coming soon...Is it just me, or is it entirely possible that the Big 10 gets swepped out of its bowls?

They just never learn with that conference. (I can hear the rebuttals now: "Well at least we learn in that conference!!! HAAAA!" Kudos in advance, geniuses.)

Posted on: December 4, 2008 6:57 pm

Mizzou's Unfortunate Role in the BCS

Back to sports.

I am a Mizzou football fan. (I like the basketball team too, but I have been a bigger Memphis fan since Penny's Memphis State.) Anyway, it is unfortunate what has become of the Tigers' season. And it has come down to this: When Mizzou is destroyed by OU (prediction -- 63-35, with a large amount of Mizzou's points coming in garbage time), it will have ensured a Big XII-SEC BCS Title Game. (Can anyone really argue the winner of Florida-Alabama doesn't make it?)

This could be pretty exciting. After all, these are pretty much unarguably the two best football conferences in the country, especially with the disdainful efforts put forth by the Big East and Pac-10 this year. (Oregon State having a chance at the Rose Bowl, and Cincinnati easily winning the Big East? Ummmmm...) So the matchup would be a lot of fun -- easily more fun than the "Hicks and Heehaws" (MU vs. WVU)battle described by Mike Freeman, with a disgusting degree of reverse racism, around this time last year.

I think Florida will win this game without much of a problem. Tim Tebow is the Tyler Hansbrough of College Football, but a lot better -- same intensity, more skill, and way less douchebaggery. Ever since Florida lost to Mississippi, Tebow will not let this team lose -- he won't even let it win by less than 40. I just don't think he can be stopped.

So since I don't think Mizzou will come within light years of posing a threat to OU, and I think Florida will win, I guess I am logically predicting a Florida-OU BCS Title Game.

The only real problem that could have arisen this year in the BCS, then, is what has already happened to Texas. Because even if OU somehow loses, really only Texas will have a legitimate claim to the title game. (Although I have littled faith in Mizzou's ability to pull off this upset, I am obviously not going to argue it simply isn't possible.) Alabama would be a victim of timing and the fact that never will two teams from the same conference face off in the Title Game. USC is solely a victim of circumstance -- now is not a good time to be #5 with only a game against a second tier program left. Texas Tech and Penn State (the next-closest 1-loss teams) just haven't looked strong enough lately, and specifically to TTU, Graham Harrell just had about 80 pieces of his (throwing!) hand reattached. And Utah is...Utah.

So it's clear: The BCS Title will be (reassertion of my prediction in bold): Florida/Alabama vs. OU/Texas. Where's the problem this year? What's going to allow media outlets to resound with holiday complaints about the system?

Could it really actually work?

Oh, crap. It can't. It already screwed Texas. Oh well -- that's more the Big XII's fault anyway.

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com